How the new series fare so far...

(For Nielsen coverage in full, check out Mark Berman's Programming Insider column daily.)

New Show Debut Ratings from last week:

Private Practice (ABC) – Wed. 9 p.m.
Viewers: 14.41 million (#13), A18-49: 5.2/13 (#10)

Bionic Woman (NBC) – Wed. 9 p.m.
Viewers: 13.91 million (#16), A18-49: 5.7/14 (#8)

Big Shots (ABC) – Thurs. 10 p.m.
Viewers: 11.10 million (#29), A18-49: 4.5/12 (#20t)

Dirty Sexy Money (ABC) – Wed. 10 p.m.
Viewers: 10.44 million (#31), A18-49: 3.6/10 (#32t)

Life (NBC) – Wed. 10 p.m.
Viewers: 9.95 million (#34), A18-49: 4.0/11 (#27)

The Big Bang Theory (CBS) – Mon. 8:30 p.m.
Viewers: 9.52 million (#37), A18-49: 3.7. 9 (#30t)

Chuck (NBC) – Mon. 8 p.m.
Viewers: 9.21 million (#42), A18-49: 3.6/ 9 (#32t)

Journeyman (NBC) – Mon. 10 p.m.
Viewers: 9.16 million (#43), A18-49: 3.5/ 9 (#35t)

Moonlight (CBS) – Fri. 9 p.m.
Viewers: 8.54 million (#47), A18-49: 2.5/ 8 (#55t)

Reaper (CW) – Tues. 9 p.m.
Viewers: 3.28 million (#85), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#76t)

So far this week, "The Big Bang Theory" held most of its audience from last week, and "Chuck", "Journeyman" and "Reaper" have on par numbers. "Cane" last night had better ratinigs than "Smith" in the time period a year ago. I say it will hold on for a few weeks. So far this bunch of shows look relatively stable.

"Cavemen" and "Carpoolers" last night bowed to unspectacular numbers. Both shows managed a 6.5/10 and a 6.3/10 in the fast nationals. This will probably put them in the top 50 shows of the week, but I don't expect those ratings to hold next week. Both shows were painful to watch.

There are articles all over the web detailing how increased DVR usage impacts the ratings this year. Nielsen has not yet published the live +3 and live +7 day ratings which include the DVR usage. Last year, DVR penetration was at about 8.5%. This year it is estimated to be more than double that, to 19%. 19% of households is roughly equal to 22 million households. That is a significant amount for the ratings picture and could catapult some shows from decent numbers to hit status once the DVR viewership is factored in.

Of course, the advertisers aren't so sure that people using DVRs are seeing their ads (probably not) so they are probably going to take the live +3, live +7 ratings with a grain of salt...

TV Junkie on the air at 4 PM PDT today

I'll be talking about Nielsen ratings -- what they are, how to decipher them, and the impact that a 19% DVR penetration this season (vs. 8% last year) will have on the ratings for primetime.

Podcast will be available here after the live broadcast.

** CANCELLED DUE TO TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES ** We'll try again next week.

Decent premiere numbers from 'Kid Nation' & 'Kitchen Nightmares'

If you want the latest and greatest on the overnight ratings, visit The Programming Insider Forum daily, about noon Eastern, 9 AM Pacific for the numbers.

Kid Nation underperformed somewhat, considering all the hype. Gossip Girl was nearly a bomb, losing a significant amount of America's Top Model lead-in audience.

Back to You and Kitchen Nightmares were well sampled on Fox.

Time Bandits

Time-shifting. It's all the rage. Many refer to the practice as 'TiVoing' or 'DVRing' or heck, even the antiquated and totally inaccurate 'taping'. What it is is digitally recording a program and replaying it at a later time (and if you are like me, gleefully skipping through the commercials).

For the networks, it's an interesting trend and a dilemma.

Read this USA Today article for details, but I'll pull out one bit:

For some shows, time-shifting accounts for most of the falloff. Last year at this time, only 5% of the homes in Nielsen's sample had the recording devices; now 15.8% do. That has sparked a wider gap between ratings for shows watched live — the only yardstick used by Nielsen last year — and those watched within seven days of their initial airing.

"If you look at live plus seven-day viewing, those declines for several shows start to vanish," says Fox's Preston Beckman. Lost lost 14% of its live viewing this season, but when time-shifting is factored in, the show is down only 1%. The Office, down 10%, is actually up 2% with delayed viewing included.

"We can't really examine things in the same mind-set that we did a year ago," ABC research chief Larry Hyams says.

You ask "what does this have to do with writing for TV?" EVERYTHING. The networks are still the primary source for scripted series, drama and comedy. While there is certainly a gain in the number of cable shows, most people are still going to be looking to the networks for signs of where the jobs will be. The DVR revolution is coming. To go from 5% to 15% of households using DVRs is enormous. If this pace continues, Nielsen will have better luck measuring the viewership of test patterns.

Already Nielsen has reacted to this new trend and is attempting to develop new ways to measure ratings for shows, based on timeshifting. The problem is with the advertisers, not the networks.

The advertisers believe (mostly rightly) that people who record shows to watch later are skipping through the commercials to watch the program. If you aren't watching commercials, there's no reason to advertise. If there's no reason to advertise, networks lose money. If networks lose money...well, I think you see where this is going.

Keep an eye on this. Some people are considering this the 'tipping point' for networks focusing more on content for the internet or VOD. We'll only know by looking back on this time, but for now, we must all be aware of the changes to the status quo.

How to keep your favorite show from being cancelled

I suppose the short and sweet answer is to WATCH THEM.

*sigh*

I suppose you want more than that. Fine. Become a Nielsen family. THEN WATCH THEM IN REAL TIME.

Still no good? Have any friends who are Nielsen metered homes? Go over to their place, make them watch your show in real time. Repeat this about 1,000 times.

Networks care about their ratings. Ratings dictate how much they can charge for ads. If a show gets terrible ratings, in most cases it equals not getting enough people to pay ad rates for that show. The network then tries to salvage what they can by putting something else on the air which companies will buy ads during.

But wait, what about me? The viewer! Don't I get a say?

Not really.

If you pay for a channel, like HBO, you have a say. They cancel your show, you cancel your HBO. Pretty easy. Network and basic cable are a different ballgame.

It's all about the ad dollars.

Look, I've been where you are, I'm there now. You fall in love with a show. It's funny, dramatic, interesting, quirky, different...all the things you want in a TV show. But it only pulls a 3 share (a share point represents about 1.2 million households). Even with close to 7 million people watching, it just isn't enough. Advertisers can get more eyeballs on the competing show. Your favorite show loses advertisers. If it loses ad dollars, it loses the game.

So, the best solution is to know how to cope with a show you love not going the distance. Some people form cult like support groups (Firefly fans come to mind). Others just find something else to watch. Some form letter writing campaigns.

Campaigns targeted at a network are pointless. Target the advertisers. Tell them how much you love their commercials and products and are happy they support your favorite show on TV. Tell them you will happily buy more of their products if they keep supporting your show. I have no idea if this works, but believe me, it's more on target than bitching at ABC for cancelling Daybreak. If the advertisers left and it didn't get good reviews- the only saving grace for some shows is award cred. Win some awards, and a network will save a low rated show because awards are like free advertising that your show is good. More people may start watching it. More people equals higher ratings equals more $$ for advertising.

You getting the drift?