How the new series fare so far...

(For Nielsen coverage in full, check out Mark Berman's Programming Insider column daily.)

New Show Debut Ratings from last week:

Private Practice (ABC) – Wed. 9 p.m.
Viewers: 14.41 million (#13), A18-49: 5.2/13 (#10)

Bionic Woman (NBC) – Wed. 9 p.m.
Viewers: 13.91 million (#16), A18-49: 5.7/14 (#8)

Big Shots (ABC) – Thurs. 10 p.m.
Viewers: 11.10 million (#29), A18-49: 4.5/12 (#20t)

Dirty Sexy Money (ABC) – Wed. 10 p.m.
Viewers: 10.44 million (#31), A18-49: 3.6/10 (#32t)

Life (NBC) – Wed. 10 p.m.
Viewers: 9.95 million (#34), A18-49: 4.0/11 (#27)

The Big Bang Theory (CBS) – Mon. 8:30 p.m.
Viewers: 9.52 million (#37), A18-49: 3.7. 9 (#30t)

Chuck (NBC) – Mon. 8 p.m.
Viewers: 9.21 million (#42), A18-49: 3.6/ 9 (#32t)

Journeyman (NBC) – Mon. 10 p.m.
Viewers: 9.16 million (#43), A18-49: 3.5/ 9 (#35t)

Moonlight (CBS) – Fri. 9 p.m.
Viewers: 8.54 million (#47), A18-49: 2.5/ 8 (#55t)

Reaper (CW) – Tues. 9 p.m.
Viewers: 3.28 million (#85), A18-49: 1.5/ 4 (#76t)

So far this week, "The Big Bang Theory" held most of its audience from last week, and "Chuck", "Journeyman" and "Reaper" have on par numbers. "Cane" last night had better ratinigs than "Smith" in the time period a year ago. I say it will hold on for a few weeks. So far this bunch of shows look relatively stable.

"Cavemen" and "Carpoolers" last night bowed to unspectacular numbers. Both shows managed a 6.5/10 and a 6.3/10 in the fast nationals. This will probably put them in the top 50 shows of the week, but I don't expect those ratings to hold next week. Both shows were painful to watch.

There are articles all over the web detailing how increased DVR usage impacts the ratings this year. Nielsen has not yet published the live +3 and live +7 day ratings which include the DVR usage. Last year, DVR penetration was at about 8.5%. This year it is estimated to be more than double that, to 19%. 19% of households is roughly equal to 22 million households. That is a significant amount for the ratings picture and could catapult some shows from decent numbers to hit status once the DVR viewership is factored in.

Of course, the advertisers aren't so sure that people using DVRs are seeing their ads (probably not) so they are probably going to take the live +3, live +7 ratings with a grain of salt...

CBS Schedule Predictions

CBS once again has a relatively stable schedule. They renewed a large number of their shows, and only have a few time periods to really worry about. Still, I'd like to see CBS mix things up a little bit to counter some of the moves by their competitors.

Monday

This is one night where CBS should stay the course. Monday is a good comedy night for them, but ratings have been weaker of late. Still, I think we'll see "How I Met Your Mother" paired with newcomer "The Big Bang Theory" in the 8 PM hour. For 9 PM "The New Adventures of Old Christine" could play lead-in to "I'm in Hell". At 10 PM CBS will most likely stay with what works -- CSI: Miami.

Tuesday

CBS has done well on Tuesday nights, and since they are keeping NCIS and The Unit, I'd expect them to continue airing these shows on this night. This could be the night that new series "Swingtown" gets a tryout at 9 PM, sandwiched between the aforementioned shows.

Wednesday

An hour of comedy on Wednesday seems to work well, so I think we'll see "Rules of Engagement" appear here after "Two and a Half Men". If ROE gets bumped to midseason, the slot will go to "The Captain", another new half hour. 9 PM would be a good hour to premiere "Viva Laughlin", but if they decide to be lame and keep their night the same, we'll see "Criminal Minds" followed by CSI: NY. Pardon me while I yawn at the prospect.

Thursday

This one's a cakewalk: "Survivor" and "CSI" for sure. Now, at 10 PM I really think they'll try out a newbie and bump "Shark" to another night, so my money is on "Los Duques", the new Jimmy Smits show to get the pimp spot.

Friday

This has been a good night for CBS, except for the lackluster numbers for now cancelled "Close to Home". I think "Twilight" would be a decent fit out of "Ghost Whisperer" and before "Numb3rs". Vampires after ghosts makes total sense to me.

Saturday

48 Hours and whatever other crap they come up with. Did I mention this is a wasteland night?

Sunday

CBS went with Race-Case-Trace as their lineup this night (which I kinda dug the mnemonic for), but I expect this to get a shakeup. For one thing, I think "Amazing Race" will get held for spring, and in its place we'll see either "Shark" relocated from Thursday to 8 PM or "Cold Case" bumped to 8 and "Shark" at 9. Of course, "60 Minutes" will continue to air at 7.

Tune in bright and early for the real schedule.

ABC Schedule predictions

This is pure conjecture on my part. In no way is this to be considered ABC's schedule for the fall. ABC will announce tomorrow (and there is a 5 AM Conference call I will join just to get the word that much more quickly to you people), so we'll do the compare/contrast after that.

Okay, so on to my totally non-scientific predictions:

Monday

Monday was tough for ABC this year, but this spring they did bang up business with "Dancing with the Stars" and "The Bachelor". While neither is a shoo-in for a fall premiere date (Dancing with the Stars has a shot), I think ABC will opt for some new and moved programming for this night.

While NBC has "Deal or No Deal", "Heroes", and the new "Journeyman" for its lineup, CBS will likely continue to program sitcoms Monday night, and Fox will continue with male skewing shows "Prison Break" and something new, ABC would do well to counter program Mondays to women. I would suggest a lineup which includes "Men In Trees" on this night and possibly intro new show "Women's Murder Club". Another possible fit would be "Private Practice", but I think it will get a pimp spot on another night. Filling the 8 PM hour should be one of the net's reality shows, possibly "Wife Swap" or "Supernanny", which have performed well here in the past. If they get moved to midseason or summer, this spot is a toss-up to me.

Tuesday

Tuesday again has been decent with "Dancing with the Stars" results show and "Boston Legal" at 10 PM. I think, however, there is room to really compete on Tuesday night. While "House" is dominant on Fox at 9 PM, don't be surprised to see ABC really push the 10 PM hour further with the Grey's spinoff, "Private Practice." This would bump "Boston Legal" to another night, possibly Monday or Friday. When "October Road" comes back midseason, it should be slated in on Tuesdays, but may air out of Grey's depending on how well the new shows airing in the post-Grey's spot performs. At 8 on Tuesday I wouldn't be surprised to see "Eli Stone" get a shot (though I'm on the fence as to whether this is an 8 PM or 9 PM show). Expect all of this to get tossed for "Dancing" in the spring.

Wednesday

A night of trouble for ABC. I think they'll move "Lost" back to 9 PM and try to launch "Pushing Daisies" out of it at 10 PM. I know this strategy didn't really work for "The Nine", but "Lost" performs far better at 9 PM, even with the competition. The 8 PM hour should see the launch of sitcom "Caveman" (ugh) at 8:30 and possibly "According to Jim" resuming it's 8 PM duties.

Thursday

Are you ready for a powerhouse night? Prepare for "Ugly Betty", "Grey's Anatomy" and "Dirty Sexy Money", which I think will take the 10 PM post-Grey's slot. The show has great buzz and will probably be the show (besides the Grey's spinoff) that gets the most promotion. If it takes off, they could then move it to a weaker night to anchor. I think ABC is happy with what they have for Thursday, and the only possible change would come at mid-season with some other show getting a shot post-Grey's.

Friday

ABC for years was king of Friday. I think they'll try to make this a "girl's night", and they should -- Air the two new sitcoms "Sam I Am" and "Carpoolers" in the 8 PM hour to lead off. Then continue the femme vibe at 9 with new show "Cashmere Mafia" and finally "Big Shots", which I hear has tested very well.

Saturday

College football and reruns. Wasteland.

Sunday

This night will remain mostly unchanged. I expect we'll see all the current lineup in their usual timeslots -- "America's Funniest Home Videos", "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition", "Desperate Housewives" and "Brothers and Sisters".

What's left over? Midseason pickups for "October Road" and "Notes from the Underbelly", and we'll probably see "The Bachelor" return in the spring. I also wouldn't be surprised if ABC picks up one or two more dramas for midseason. Depending on ratings for "Traveler" -- that's a long shot -- could still get a midseason order.

Now we wait to see what the professionals will do tomorrow.