My horses in the cancellation derby

Now, this is without seeing most of the new shows, but here is what I predict will not make the cut (and these are not in order...I fully expect UPN or WB to beat Fox to the punch in cancelling a show before 'Head Cases' gets the axe).

Head Cases
Just Legal (no way no how anyone will tune in for Don Johnson. Sorry Don).
Twins (no way no how anyone will tune in for Don Johnsons's ex. Sorry Melanie).
Fathom/Surface (whatever it's called this week)
Reunion (this was just horrible)
Freddie
The Night Stalker
Ghost Whisperer
Out of Practice (yeah, I hadn't heard of it either)
Killer Instinct (thankfully, people will tire of gross crime stories, and hey, they can get that on CBS all week long!)
The War at Home
Inconceivable

Wow, you're thinking. That's a lot of shows headed to the fall season graveyard. What does that leave standing at the end of the season (or at least until mid-season):

Threshold
Criminal Minds
E-Ring (although, I'm on the fence on this one)
Bones
Commander-in-Chief
Hot Properties
Invasion
Close to Home
How I Met Your Mother
My Name is Earl
Kitchen Confidential
Prison Break
The Apprentice: Martha Stewart
Three Wishes
Everybody Hates Chris
Love, Inc (yeah, but UPN has so little to work with)
Sex, Love and Secrets (again, I'm cutting UPN a break, just like they do with their shows...unless it places dead last)
Related
Supernatural

See? You thought I was being harsh, but I'm giving more than 60% of the new shows a shot at survival. I think that sitcoms will do particularly well this year (even though there are some duds) and remember, this isn't based on me seeing all the shows or even on the quality of the shows. I base my predictions on strength of schedule, concept of show, ability to grow, stars attached, network involved and pure gut instinct.

I'll track my accuracy as the season progresses. If I'm wrong, I'll call it, but you heard it here folks...